SOME THOUGHTS ON REPORTS THAT PUTIN IS SERIOUSLY ILL
My first thought in response to these recent reports of Putin’s ill health is that I’ve heard these kinds of stories over the years — that Putin has cancer or a similar serious health problem. Several years ago, it was spinal cancer. In recent weeks it’s been speculated that it is thyroid cancer and now some suggest some kind of blood cancer. None of these stories has ever been substantiated or shown to be true. What’s more, as with so many other claims about Putin or the Kremlin, it is unlikely that anyone in a position to really know this to be true would be blabbing it to western media or some obscure Telegram channel account owner.
The fact that Ukrainian officials are now pushing these stories screams of information war. And the cherry on the sundae is that Christopher Steele is expressing his agreement that Putin is seriously ill. Given Steele’s track record, it’s tempting to totally dismiss it based on that alone.
That all being said, Putin is 69 years old and he’s not immortal. It’s plausible that he could develop any number of possible health problems, even a significant one, no matter how well he has tried to maintain his health. This is why a couple of years back I said that it would be best for Putin to start grooming a successor so he can ease himself out of power by 2024. I see no outward signs that he has done so. I suggested then that it would be far more destabilizing for Russia to be forced into a sudden transition because Putin dies or becomes incapacitated, which becomes a bigger risk the older Putin gets while delaying substantive plans for succession.
According to the Russian constitution, the next in line for the presidency should Putin die or become incapacitated is the prime minister (formally known as Chairman of the Government):
Article 92
Section 2. The President of the Russian Federation shall cease the execution of the powers of the President before their expiration in cases of resignation, continued inability to discharge the powers of the office for reasons of health or removal from office by impeachment. In such cases, new elections of the President shall be held no later than three months after the early termination of the execution of the office.
Section 3. In all cases when the President of the Russian Federation shall be unable to execute the powers of the President, they shall be temporarily performed by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation [Prime Minister — NB]. The acting President of the Russian Federation shall have no right to dissolve the State Duma, call a referendum or submit proposals on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation or revisions of its provisions.
Mikhail Mishustin, who currently holds the position of prime minister, is by all measures a very effective technocrat. He does not appear to have any obvious character issues like arrogance, dishonesty/corruption or temperamental instability. But his experience is limited when it comes to the range of duties he would suddenly be responsible for should he be thrown into the presidency. We have no idea how he would approach foreign policy and I don’t know if he has the ability to sternly balance the different interests that Putin has arbitrated over. What would the field of candidates look like in a quickly organized election? Would a more strident and ruthless person from the security services ultimately win? Would such elections be relatively free or largely manipulated? There’s also the question of how the US/west would respond to such a situation at a time when it’s already been publicly stated that a weakened Russia is desirable.
Regardless of one’s opinion of Putin, I think the best hope is that he is able to finish out his term through 2024 and that, by that time, perhaps the war will have been wound down, the economy stabilized and the ugly divorce with the west will not be quite as fresh. Though probably unlikely, Putin’s sudden death in the near future could be extremely messy.
